Whose Illusion? Causal Inference is Fundamental to Data Analysis and Cognition

The authors (SSK) make wholesale claims that scientists and lay people suffer not only from misunderstandings, but more dangerous illusions of understanding. However, their case is only supported by intuitive examples rather than solid arguments or data. We argue that SSK misrepresent contemporary scientific thinking, ignore recent advances in methods for causal inference, and exaggerate people's biases in everyday causal reasoning. Accordingly, we point out that these advances paint a much more optimistic view of scientific understanding.