Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Climate Change Impacts on Massive Invasive Plants in Henan Province, China

Invasive alien plant species have attracted significant global attention due to their profound ecological disruptions and substantial economic losses. As a critical ecological barrier in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, Henan Province has experienced increasing pressure from biological invasions that jeopardize local biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. In this study, we utilized the species distribution modeling framework to predict the potential geographic distributions of 17 massive invasive plant species under current and future climatic conditions. Our findings indicate that suitable habitats for these massive invasive plants are mainly concentrated in the western and southern regions of Henan. Currently, the high-risk areas, which are highly suitable for these 17 massive invasive plants, encompass 18.42% of the province's total land area. Under future climate scenarios for 2050, this area is projected to decrease to between 17.27% and 15.99%, with a maximum relative reduction of 13.17% occurring under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP585). Furthermore, the results suggest an elevational shift from low to high altitudes in the future among these invasive species, accompanied by a southwestward migration. This research provides a scientific basis for risk assessment and the management of invasive species and offers valuable guidance for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem resilience in the context of global environmental change.