Mapping Global and Regional Risks: Structural Insights From Systems Thinking and Interpretive Structural Modeling

This study contributes to global risk analysis by providing a structural and exploratory enhancement to the analytical framework used to interpret the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report (GRR), particularly the 2024 edition. It explores the complex interactions among critical global and regional risks using interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and systems thinking (ST)-based causal loop diagrams (CLDs). Rather than offering validated intervention guidance or predictive modeling, the study focuses on qualitative and structural mapping of risk interdependencies. Instead of combining the two methodologies, their insights are systematically integrated to provide a deeper understanding of global and regional risk dynamics. Through ISM, the research identifies hierarchical relationships among risks, highlighting key drivers and consequences, while CLDs reveal reinforcing feedback loops and interdependencies that illustrate the cyclical nature of systemic risks. Key findings highlight the critical roles of "extreme weather events," "pollution," and "critical change to Earth systems" in global risk networks, and regional dynamics such as "geoeconomic confrontation" and "technological power concentration" in the Middle East. The complementary use of ISM and CLDs offers exploratory insights beyond existing GRR network metrics by making explicit the hierarchical positioning of risks and their qualitative feedback structures. This study positions its contribution as groundwork for future quantitative modeling and scenario analysis, providing interpretive and structural insights rather than operational decision support.