Thoracic Surgeon Density in Türkiye in the Global Context: Implications for Workforce Planning

Ten years ago, evidence demonstrated that the number of thoracic surgeons in Türkiye was excessive. In the intervening period, health policies have continued to significantly increase the number of thoracic surgeons. It is estimated that this number will almost double within the next ten years. This study aims to investigate, using scientific data, the ideal number of thoracic surgeons required in Türkiye.

Thoracic surgery workforce requirements were estimated using national data on annual outpatient visits and hospitalization rates; data from the Turkish Statistical Institute; specialist physician growth rates; and international data from Europe, the Americas, and global sources, according to service targets, population growth, high human development index countries, and global benchmarks.

According to Ministry of Health data, 693 licensed thoracic surgeons are currently registered as active physicians in Türkiye. In addition, 353 residents are undergoing specialist training in thoracic surgery. Based on annual outpatient visits (1,100,000) and hospitalization rate (5%), the required number of thoracic surgeons was calculated as 589. Based on specialist physician growth and population growth over the past decade, the required numbers were estimated as 586 and 589, respectively. According to European, American, and global benchmarks, the required numbers were 267, 351, and 102, respectively. Overall, calculations using all methods indicate a workforce excess ranging from 15% to 81.9%.

The number of thoracic surgeons in Türkiye is substantially higher than the estimated requirements and is expected to increase further due to ongoing residency training. National workforce planning based on objective criteria is needed to ensure alignment between training capacity and healthcare needs.