Near-term increased exposure to political risk for African power trades

Conflicts and socio-political instability plague electricity security in many African countries, hindering a transition to a net-zero emissions energy system. Established large-scale energy system planning approaches, relying on least-cost optimization models, regularly neglect the impact of political turmoil on energy security. This study assesses how six cost-optimal energy transition strategies for Africa might be affected by future socio-political instability and power trade volumes through a measure of power trade-related political risk. Our findings indicate that the most vulnerable period for Africa is the first half of the 2020-2030 decade, with socio-political risk hotspots in Western, Southern, and Central-Eastern Africa. Different socio-demographic, climatic and hydrological regime assumptions influence the distribution of socio-political risk across different regions, as countries uniquely adapt to future scenarios. These findings underscore the crucial need to integrate socio-political factors into energy systems planning, ensuring that transition strategies are flexible and cognizant of the involved risks.