Modeling the cost-effectiveness of introducing donation after controlled circulatory death for heart transplantation...

Heart transplantation following donation after controlled circulatory death (DCD) could alleviate the global shortage of organs. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of this strategy and outlined the factors enabling an efficient DCD heart program. Two strategies were compared: donation after brain death (DBD) using static cold storage vs. DBD + DCD transplantation, where DCD hearts are preserved with a normothermic ex situ perfusion system. Costs (€; 2024 value) and outcomes (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) were modelled through a 15-year time horizon. Our main assumption was that DCD would increase transplant access without affecting waitlist mortality, with equivalent post-transplant outcomes. With a 20% annual increase in transplant activity, the DBD + DCD strategy resulted in a mean incremental gain of 0.14 QALYs at an additional cost of €20,618 compared with DBD alone. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €146,373 per QALY gained. An 8% relative reduction in waitlist mortality (i.e., four additional lives saved annually among 500 new waitlisted patients) would make the DCD heart program cost-effective at €100,000 per QALY. Lower consumable costs would further improve cost-effectiveness. Decision-makers should consider these findings in light of the disease severity and the persistent shortage of heart donors that could be alleviated with DCD.