Treatment Patterns and Prognostic Nomograms for Overall Survival and Hepatic Progression-Free Survival in
Ketong Wu1,2, Haiyang Chen2,3, Dan Li1,2
1Department of Interventional Radiology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510655, China.
Abstract:
(1) Background: Drug-eluting bead transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) is increasingly used for unresectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM), yet individualized prognostic tools are lacking. We developed and internally validated nomograms predicting overall survival (OS) and hepatic progression-free survival (hPFS). (2) Methods: In this single-center retrospective cohort, reported per the TRIPOD guideline, OS and hPFS were estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods, and independent predictors from multivariable Cox regression were assembled into nomograms. Internal validation combined 1000-sample bootstrap optimism-corrected concordance indices (C-index), a uniform shrinkage factor, a bootstrap calibration slope, and a LASSO-Cox sensitivity analysis. (3) Results: Among 63 patients (44 deaths; 42 intrahepatic-progression events), median OS was 10.9 months and median hPFS was 5.8 months. Independent OS predictors were baseline CEA, high liver tumor burden (≥10 lesions), CEA decline (protective), and second-line-or-beyond interventional therapy (corrected C-index: 0.796). Independent hPFS predictors were high liver tumor burden, CEA decline, and age (corrected C-index: 0.718). Nomogram-defined high-risk groups had markedly shorter OS (5.3 vs. 22.8 months) and hPFS (3.3 vs. 8.6 months; both p < 0.001). Grade ≥3 toxicity occurred in 6%. (4) Conclusions: In real-world DEB-TACE-treated CRLM, liver tumor burden and CEA dynamics dominated prognosis; the internally validated nomograms provide individualized estimates and risk stratification, pending external validation.
