Global Habitat Suitability Modeling of the Giant Honeybee (Apis dorsata) Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

The giant honeybee, Apis dorsata, is an important pollinator native to tropical and subtropical Asia. Understanding its potential response to climate change is important for pollinator conservation, ecological risk assessment, and biosecurity planning. This study used an optimized MaxEnt ecological niche modeling framework to predict the current and future global habitat suitability of A. dorsata. The model was developed using 1060 occurrence records and seven non-collinear bioclimatic variables and projected under three global climate models (IPSL-CM6A-LR, BCC-CSM2-MR, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR) and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) for 2041-2060, centered on 2050. The optimized model used linear, quadratic, and hinge features (LQH) with a regularization multiplier of 0.5 and demonstrated good predictive performance under 5-fold spatial cross-validation (mean AUC = 0.905 ± 0.007; TSS = 0.746 ± 0.010). The results indicate that the potential distribution of A. dorsata is primarily associated with the combined effects of seasonal temperature and moisture availability. Current projections identified high climatic suitability across South and Southeast Asia, while also revealing potentially suitable environments in parts of Africa, the Americas, and northern Australia. Future projections suggest that suitable climatic conditions will largely persist through 2050, with habitat gains generally exceeding losses and increasing under higher climate-forcing scenarios. Continued monitoring and proactive biosecurity are essential to address habitat loss within the native range and prevent establishment in newly suitable regions. This study highlights the potential redistribution of A. dorsata under future climate change.