On-package claims are imperfect signals of overall nutritional quality

On-package claims, including Minus, Plus, Natural and Functional claims, are widely used to communicate nutritional or health-related benefits. Using data on newly launched US food and beverage products from the Mintel Global New Products Database and the UK nutrient profiling model (NPM), we assessed how well these claims signal overall nutritional quality. While products with claims are often associated with more favourable nutrient profiles at the market level, this pattern is inconsistent across claim types and product categories. In particular, food products carrying trans fat claims and beverages carrying sodium claims often exhibit poorer overall nutritional quality than those without the claims. Component analyses suggest potential reformulation trade-offs and selective signalling. Moreover, even when products carrying claims have more favourable nutrient profile scores, many remain classified as 'less healthy' under the NPM. These findings indicate that attribute-based claims are imperfect signals of overall nutritional quality, with important implications for food labelling policy and consumer decision-making.