Heat Stress and Elite Tennis Performance: A 26-Year Analysis of Grand Slam Match Dynamics in a Warming Climate

To evaluate the association of elevated ambient heat stress with elite men's tennis performance, match dynamics and competitive outcomes.

This retrospective cohort study analyzed 13,081 men's matches in all four Grand Slam tournaments from 2000-2025, linked with localized meteorological data. Tournaments were classified as "Hot" if the mean Heat Index exceeded the local 26-year average by ≥1.0 standard deviation; remaining tournaments were classified as "Control". Categorical and continuous outcomes included measures of match completion, technical performance, competitive outcomes, and temporal match characteristics.

"Hot" tournaments clustered heavily in the last decade. Elevated thermal stress inverted the winner-minus-loser age gap from -0.21 to +0.16 years (p<0.01), indicating a relative advantage for older athletes. Match pace differed between environmental conditions: median match pace was 1.47 points per minute during Hot tournaments vs. 1.53 points per minute during Control tournaments (p<0.001), and median match duration was 149 min. vs. 141 min. (p<0.001). Technical metrics showed subtle alterations, including higher double-fault rates (3.71% vs. 3.50%, p<0.001). While overall match non-completion rates and ranking upsets remained stable globally, the non-completion rate nearly doubled at the US Open (8.35% vs. 4.65%, p<0.001).

Elevated Heat Index was associated with small but consistent changes in elite men's tennis match dynamics. The observed reduction in match pace is consistent with self-pacing under elevated thermal stress. These findings carry vital implications for sports sectors where the capacity to regulate effort intensity is constrained. Sporting organizations should consider proactive heat-management frameworks, including environmental monitoring, scheduling, acclimatization, and cooling interventions, to safeguard athletes' health and preserve performance.