Climatic and density-dependent drivers of population dynamics in a hazardous urban scorpion species over seven years

Tityus serrulatus Lutz & Mello (Scorpiones: Buthidae) is the most medically important scorpion in Brazil, responsible for a growing number of accidents in urban areas. Despite its relevance, the population dynamics of this species in anthropogenic habitats remain poorly understood, particularly regarding the influence of abiotic factors on its abundance and reproduction. We analysed long-term data (2006-2013) from T. serrulatus collected in an urban cemetery in the municipality of Americana, São Paulo State, Brazil. Using spatiotemporal mixed models, we evaluated the effects of temperature and humidity at the graves on the abundance of brooded and non-brooded individuals, as well as on the ratio between the two reproductive groups. A total of 21,489 individuals were recorded, including 463 brooded individuals. While total abundance remained relatively stable across seasons, non-brooded individuals increased mainly with humidity and brooded individuals increased with temperature. The ratio of brooded-to-non-brooded individuals increased as overall abundance declined, indicating potential density-dependent feedback on reproduction. Possibly, this pattern reflects the interaction between climatic and biotic factors. T. serrulatus populations show remarkable resilience and adaptability to urban habitats, with reproductive and demographic responses shaped by both climatic and density-dependent drivers. These insights contribute to the eco-epidemiological understanding of scorpionism and may inform more effective surveillance and control strategies in urban areas.