AI-Driven Radiomics Assisted Prognostic Modeling for Hepatocellular Carcinoma with Portal Vein Invasion: A...

Background: Portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT) marks advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and carries a dismal prognosis. Survival varies widely even within this stage, yet simple tools for individualized risk stratification remain scarce. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 134 HCC patients with PVTT and randomly divided them into a training set (n = 94) and a validation set (n = 40). Clinical predictors were selected by variance inflation factor screening and backward elimination Cox regression. A radiomics score (Rad-score) was constructed from portal-venous phase computed tomography (CT) images using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) Cox regression with 10-fold cross-validation. Three Cox models were built: a clinical model, an imaging model based solely on the Rad-score, and a combined model integrating both. Discrimination was assessed by C-index and time-dependent area under the curve (AUC). Calibration was examined with bootstrap-based calibration curves. Decision curve analysis evaluated net benefit. A nomogram was developed from the combined model. Results: Four clinical variables (alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), body mass index (BMI), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP)) and two CT texture features (GLRLM_SRHGE and GLZLM_SZHGE) were retained as independent predictors. The combined model gave the highest C-index in both the training set (0.843) and the internal validation set (0.815). Its 1-year AUC reached 0.953 and 0.947 in the two sets. Calibration slopes ranged from 1.044 to 1.291 across time points, indicating a tendency toward mild overdispersion; nevertheless, decision curve analysis confirmed net benefit across clinically relevant thresholds. The combined model offered greater net benefit than either single-domain model across a 0-50% threshold range. A nomogram incorporating all five predictors was generated for individualized 12- and 24-month survival prediction. Conclusions: A combined model integrating routine laboratory variables and a CT-based radiomics score improved survival prediction over clinical or imaging models alone. The corresponding nomogram uses inputs from a basic blood panel and a single portal-venous phase CT, suggesting its potential as a low-cost prognostic stratification tool for HCC patients with PVTT, although external validation in prospective multicenter cohorts is required before clinical implementation.