Predicting the Unpredictable: Development and External Validation of the GO SOAR Surgical Risk Calculator for...

Background/Objectives: Universal surgical risk calculators are not validated for use and poorly predict postoperative morbidity and mortality for women undergoing gynaecological oncology surgery. This adversely affects communication of risk resulting in poorly informed decisions and missed opportunities for medical optimization to mitigate risk preoperatively. We present the development and external validation of our novel GO SOAR surgical risk calculator for use to preoperatively predict postoperative thirty-day surgical morbidity and mortality in relation to gynaecological oncology surgeries. Methods: New logistic regression models were developed using the GO SOAR1 training cohort (n = 1811) and externally validated in an independent prospective cohort (n = 416) for two outcomes: thirty-day postoperative mortality (alive versus dead) and thirty-day postoperative morbidity (any complication (Clavien-Dindo I-V) versus none). Performance of the GO SOAR models was compared against established all-purpose surgical risk calculators (SORT/POSSUM/P-POSSUM/NSQIP). Model discrimination was assessed with sensitivity calculated at a clinically significant prespecified specificity threshold of 90%. Results: For mortality, AUROC was 0.752 (95% CI 0.570-0.935) for GO SOAR full and 0.795 (95% CI 0.660-0.930) for GO SOAR condensed; corresponding sensitivities at 90% specificity were 57.1% and 42.9%. For morbidity, AUROC was 0.698 (95% CI 0.641-0.755) and 0.703 (95% CI 0.646-0.760) for the full and condensed models, respectively, with sensitivities of 30.4% and 32.1% at 90% specificity. Conclusions: The GO SOAR model using a data-driven, gynaecological-oncology-specific approach at 90% specificity, achieved the highest observed sensitivity among the evaluated calculators. Accurate surgical risk predictions are crucial for major oncological surgery, where complications can diminish quality of life and affect long-term cancer survival. A model such as the GO SOAR surgical risk calculator that uses readily available preoperative data, regardless of income setting, is essential in reducing global disparities in surgical outcomes.