Patterns of recorded sexual violence in Lithuania before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: A national registry-based...

Sexual violence is a major public health and medico-legal concern, but many cases remain unreported. During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, social isolation, restricted services, and psychosocial stress raised concerns about changes in reporting. This study aimed to analyze and compare patterns of officially recorded sexual violence in Lithuania before and during the pandemic. A retrospective, registry-based, repeated cross-sectional study used data from the Departmental Register of Criminal Offences on recorded sexual offenses in Lithuania during 2018 to 2021. Cases were divided into pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and pandemic (2020-2021) periods. Data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel and R 4.3.2 with Rcmdr 2.9.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing). Categorical variables were compared using chi-square or Fisher exact tests, with Monte Carlo simulation where appropriate; quantitative variables using the t-test or Mann-Whitney U test; and population-based recorded case rates using Poisson rate comparison. A total of 736 recorded sexual violence cases were analyzed. Recorded cases decreased from 451 before the pandemic to 285 during the pandemic, and the recorded case rate decreased from 8.01 to 5.07 per 100,000 population (rate ratio 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.54-0.74, P < .001). Rape was the most frequently recorded offense type. Most recorded victims were female, and most cases involved suspects known to the victim. The proportion of minors among recorded victims slightly increased, but not significantly (64.8% vs 69.0%, P = .255), while the population-based recorded victim rate among minors decreased. Victims were significantly younger than suspects (P < .001). Recorded alcohol involvement slightly decreased, but not significantly. Among cases with documented physical-damage information (48.1%), non-severe health impairment was recorded more frequently during the pandemic period (3.95% vs 18.08%, P < .001). In Lithuania, officially recorded sexual violence cases and their population-based rate decreased during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, while the main recorded victim-suspect profile remained broadly similar. Most recorded cases involved female victims and suspects known to the victim, and minors constituted a large proportion of recorded victims. Among cases with documented physical-damage information, non-severe health impairment was more frequently recorded during the pandemic period.