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How Can Multi-Criteria Portfolio Decision Analysis Help Mitigate Mis/Disinformation?
Ahti Salo1, Leevi Olander1, Tuomas Raivio1
1Systems Analysis Laboratory, Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis, Aalto University School of Science, Aalto, Finland.
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine and illustrate the relevance of multi-criteria portfolio decision analysis as an approach to addressing mis/disinformation risks. After summarizing representative applications of these methods, we draw on the framework for societal resilience developed in the Finnish COVID-19 Science to Panel to elaborate on the range of capabilities that can be leveraged to mitigate mis/disinformation, for example, by maintaining alertness, implementing risk management actions, and interacting with stakeholders to promote awareness. We then present a numerical case study that illustrates how multi-criteria portfolio decision analysis can be combined with probabilistic approaches for modeling voting behavior and the spread of mis/disinformation to identify cost-efficient strategies consisting of combinations of risk management actions. We conclude by discussing some of the challenges posed by mis/disinformation.
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