Trends and variability of temperature and precipitation extremes in Leh (Ladakh), India

The Himalayas, a critical climatic barrier and water resource system for South Asia, are increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts. This study investigates long-term trends in temperature and precipitation in Leh, Ladakh, a cold-arid, high-altitude region spanning the western Himalaya and Karakoram, using gridded meteorological datasets spanning 1951-2024. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied at 90% and 95% confidence levels to detect climatic trends, alongside analyses of departures from long-term normals. Results indicate a gradual warming tendency, particularly in minimum temperatures, suggesting asymmetric warming typical of high-altitude cold deserts. Seasonal precipitation shows substantial inter-annual variability without statistically significant long-term trends, though declining winter and pre-monsoon precipitation in recent decades may affect snowmelt-driven hydrology and agricultural water availability. These findings highlight the sensitivity of the fragile cold-desert ecosystem of Leh district to climatic variability and underscore the importance of climate-resilient water management, agriculture, and monitoring strategies.