Technical-tactical indicators associated with winning in elite amateur boxing: A matched-pair analysis

Identifying technical-tactical indicators associated with winning in elite amateur boxing remains challenging because each bout contains a naturally dependent winner-loser pair. Using a matched-pair notational design, we analysed 108 international elite amateur bouts (216 boxer observations) from 2019 to 2025 based on official competition videos and official results. Coded indicators were total punches thrown, punches landed, punching accuracy, successful counterattacks, defensive success rate, ring-centre control and warnings. Winner-loser differences were assessed with paired tests, and independent associations with winning were examined using conditional logistic regression stratified by bout ID, followed by 1000-resample bootstrap internal validation. Compared with losers, winners showed higher punching accuracy (30.41 ± 5.87% vs 26.84 ± 5.79%; mean difference 3.57%, 95% CI 2.10 to 5.05; p < 0.001), more successful counterattacks, higher defensive success rate and higher ring-centre control. In the matched-pair multivariable model, punching accuracy (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.43), defensive success rate (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.30), ring-centre control (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.13) and total punches thrown (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.09) were independently associated with winning, whereas successful counterattacks were not independently significant after adjustment. The model showed strong internally described discrimination (AUC 0.95, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.98; bootstrap-corrected AUC 0.93) and acceptable prediction error (Brier score 0.09; bootstrap-corrected Brier score 0.11). These findings suggest that winning in elite amateur boxing is associated with an integrated profile combining scoring efficiency, defensive quality, spatial control and sustained offensive output.