Ergometer testing for a new Olympic discipline: criterion validity in Beach Sprint rowing

Beach Sprint rowing debuts at the 2028 Olympics without an established ergometer test for athlete selection. We examined the criterion validity of two ergometer protocols against Beach Sprint performance, each evaluated within its own season. In 2024, 21 athletes (14 male, 7 female) completed a 3-min maximal effort (T3'), administered three months after the national championship. In 2025, 31 athletes (12 male, 19 female) completed two 2'30'' efforts separated by 6 min of recovery (T2×2'30''), administered approximately two months before the championship. The criterion was each athlete's mean time across all rounds. T3' correlated with mean competition time at r = -0.94 (95% CI -0.97 to -0.85), and T2×2'30'' at r = -0.73 (-0.86 to -0.50); adjusting for sex attenuated these to r = -0.79 and r = -0.50. Models including sex explained 90% and 53% of variance (SEE 5.3 s and 14.4 s), with leave-one-out cross-validation yielding Q² = 0.87 and 0.43. Sex was an independent predictor under T3' (p = 0.034) but not T2×2'30''. The between-effort decrement in T2×2'30'' was unrelated to competition performance. Ergometer performance is associated with Beach Sprint competition times under each protocol, evaluated separately within its own season.