Growth capacity and mortality burden shape microbial persistence under osmotic stress in Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron

Microbial persistence in the gut is central to sustaining beneficial host-microbiota interactions; however, characterizing determinants of persistence in vivo can be challenging due to the complexity of native microbial communities interacting with the host. Here, we used a defined microbial consortium to demonstrate that intrinsic in vitro growth capacity becomes increasingly predictive of in vivo relative abundance as intestinal osmolality increases. In Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron , in vivo abundance was higher than predicted from growth capacity alone, indicating that additional physiological factors contribute to persistence. We identify mortality as one such determinant: adaptation to prolonged osmotic stress markedly reduced cell loss without enhancing growth capacity. This adaptive phenotype was associated with rapid and reversible phase variation in cell surface-associated PUL78/80 rather than fixed de novo mutations, with the PUL78/80-OFF state becoming progressively enriched among surviving cells as mortality increased. Our findings demonstrate that in addition to growth capacity, reduced cell loss can provide a distinct route to microbial persistence during environmental perturbation.