Near-optimal P300 speller performance using large language models: A multi-model analysis with performance bounds

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a progressive neurodegenerative disease, severely impairs communication, requiring assistive technologies that restore interaction. The P300 speller brain-computer interface (BCI) enables communication by translating EEG responses into text; however, its practical adoption is limited by slow typing speed and the need for subject-specific calibration. Recent work has demonstrated that large language models (LLMs), such as GPT-2, can significantly improve the performance of the P300 speller by predicting words. However, it remains unclear whether these gains are model-specific or represent a broader trend across language models. Furthermore, the framework-specific performance bounds of LLM-assisted P300 spellers have not been systematically characterized within a unified decoding framework. In this study, we address these gaps through a systematic multi-model theoretical analysis framework. We evaluate a wide range of language models and introduce an idealized LLM to establish upper bounds on achievable performance. In addition, we incorporate cross-subject classifier training to reduce calibration requirements and assess generalization across subjects. Using extensive simulations on EEG data from 78 subjects, we demonstrate that the evaluated models consistently achieve substantial improvements in typing speed, with gains of up to ~45% (within-subject training) and ~75% (across-subject training) over conventional approaches. More importantly, we show that several high-performing models, despite architectural differences, operate within 5% of the theoretical performance bound, indicating diminishing returns from further model scaling. These improvements generalize across both within-subject and across-subject classifiers. Our results suggest that LLM-assisted P300 spellers are approaching oracle-based upper bounds within the considered decoding framework, shifting the primary bottleneck from language modeling to neural signal decoding. This work provides both a practical framework for improving BCI communication and a theoretical perspective on its achievable limits.