Firearm carrying and purchase intentions in US permitless carry states: state policy or state culture?

Over the past decade, 29 US states have adopted permitless carry laws, eliminating the requirement to obtain a permit before carrying a firearm in public. Prior research links these policy changes to increases in firearm violence, but less is known about how they relate to individual-level firearm behaviours and purchasing intentions.

Using a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of firearm-owning and non-owning US adults conducted in the USA in 2024-2025 (n=18 251), we examined associations between state permitless carry laws and firearm ownership, carrying behaviour, carry frequency, purchase intentions and firearm type. We estimated logistic and multinomial regression models, sequentially adding individual-level controls and state-level covariates including violent crime rate, poverty rate, racial composition, 2016 Republican vote share and state household firearm ownership.

In models without state-level covariates, residents of permitless carry states were more likely to report firearm ownership (OR=1.79; p<0.001), carrying outside the home (OR=1.44; p<0.05), handgun ownership or purchase intentions (OR=1.85; p<0.001) and intent to purchase a firearm (OR=1.53; p<0.001). However, these associations did not persist after accounting for state-level Republican vote share or gun-ownership rates.

Differences between permitless and non-permitless states in self-reported firearm ownership, carrying, and purchase intentions dissipated after accounting for broader state-level political and firearm contexts, suggesting that these differences may reflect state political culture and gun ownership more than permit policy alone.