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Large emission mitigation potential from sequencing fossil fuel extraction infrastructure retirement in China
Yi Jin1, Xiaoyang Zhong2,3,4, Arnold Tukker4,5
1Institute of Industrial Economics, School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China.
Abstract:
China's fossil fuel infrastructure could lock in substantial emissions across both extraction and downstream use, making a well-defined phaseout strategy urgent for achieving carbon neutrality. We analyze the differences between the current retirement strategy and the proposed emission-oriented retirement sequencing strategy by quantifying the emission mitigation effect, employment benefit, and cost-saving advantage of strategies. We show that China's fossil fuel emissions totaled 9,850 MtCO2e in 2023 and are projected to reach 98.9-148.5 GtCO2e cumulatively during 2024-2050 under existing plans across energy-demand scenarios. Strategically sequencing retirements could avoid a cumulative 3.8-4.8 GtCO2e by 2050, more than annual European emissions, while simultaneously increasing employment by 4-6 million full-time equivalent-years and reducing net total system costs by 245-507 billion CNY (around 34-71 billion USD). These results highlight the climate, economic, and social benefits of sequencing-based phaseout strategies.
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