Autism and Homelessness: Risk and Protective Factors in a Bayesian Analysis of Autistic Characteristics

Autistic individuals are overrepresented in homeless populations, yet mechanisms driving this association remain unclear, particularly in the context of diagnostic access and structural inequities. We surveyed 333 adults in Australia, assessing autistic traits (Autism-Spectrum Quotient [AQ]-50), homelessness risk factors, adaptive functioning and social support. Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models were used to estimate associations. Associations between autistic traits and homelessness probability differed according to diagnostic status. Among participants without a formal diagnosis, higher AQ-50 scores were associated with greater estimated homelessness probability, although uncertainty remained; this association was attenuated among formally diagnosed participants. Structural risk factors were credibly associated with higher homelessness probability, whereas mental health-related risk factors showed a positive posterior estimate with greater uncertainty. Interaction effects involving socioeconomic status and social support suggested that associations between autistic traits and homelessness varied according to broader social context. Bayesian mediation analyses explored adaptive functioning as a potential pathway linking autistic traits and homelessness; however, evidence for an indirect effect remained uncertain. Findings highlight the importance of diagnostic accessibility, social support and structural accommodation for individuals experiencing elevated autistic traits and housing instability. Improving access to diagnosis, autism-informed services and structural supports may represent promising targets for future interventions aimed at reducing housing instability, pending longitudinal evidence.Lay AbstractAutistic people are more likely to experience homelessness than the general population, but the reasons for this are not fully understood. Many adults with autistic traits may never receive a formal diagnosis, which can limit their access to support and services. This study examined how autistic traits, everyday functioning skills and social support relate to the risk of homelessness. We surveyed 333 adults in Australia about autistic traits, factors associated with homelessness, daily living skills and social support. Statistical analyses were used to estimate how these factors were associated with the probability of homelessness. Adults reporting higher autistic traits without a formal autism diagnosis showed a higher estimated probability of homelessness within this sample. Associations between autistic traits and homelessness differed according to diagnostic status, and stronger social support was associated with lower estimated homelessness probability. These results suggest that earlier identification of autism and improved access to support services may be associated with improved housing stability and service accessibility for autistic adults. Strengthening social support networks may also be important. These findings may help inform screening practices within homelessness services and policies that improve access to autism assessment and support.