Gastric Cancer Mortality in Mexico: Past Trends, Current Burden, and Future Perspectives

Gastric cancer remains a significant cause of mortality worldwide. This study analyzed gastric cancer mortality trends over 24 years, projections for 2030, and their relationship with indigenous populations and gastroenterology services in Mexico.

The study was based on mortality data from the Ministry of Health covering the 2000-2023 period. A total of 137,629 death records with ICD-10 codes C16.0-16.9 (gastric cancer) were extracted, including information on residence (state/municipality), sex, age (>20), and indigenous language-speaking status. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR)/100,000 inhabitants, linear regression trends, Joinpoint analysis projections, annual/average percentage changes (APC/AAPC), excess risk by municipality, and the annual gastroenterologist rate were estimated.

A notable decrease in ASMR was observed, from 11.0 in 2000 and 6.8 in 2023, with an AAPC of -2.1. Differences based on age and sex were documented: a moderate AAPC decrease among older women (≥50 years) of -1.8 and among older men of -2.1; however, a non-significant upward trend of 0.4 was observed in younger women (≤50 years), as well as a stable trend in men (0.03). Projections for 2030 suggest that gastric cancer mortality will continue to decline among older adults. The ASMR was higher in the central-southern-southeastern regions of the country and in populations with a high proportion of indigenous people who have limited access to specialized gastroenterological care.

Gastric cancer mortality trend was age-dependent, declining in older adults but rising among young people. Significant regional disparities persist, underscoring the need for targeted interventions and equitable access to specialized care.