Class perceptions and fertility decision-making: How subjective class identity and mobility expectations shape...

China's fertility rate has dropped sharply despite policy relaxations, suggesting that subjective cognitive factors-beyond objective socioeconomic conditions-matter for reproductive decisions. However, the distinct roles of current class perception versus future mobility expectations remain unclear.

This study examines how subjective class perception and class mobility expectations differentially associate with fertility intentions, childbearing behaviors, and the intention-behavior gap, and explores mediating mechanisms.

Using CGSS2023 data (N = 6073, aged 18-49), we employed ordinal logistic regression, KHB mediation, and propensity score matching.

Subjective class perception positively predicted intentions (OR = 1.125, p < 0.001) but not behaviors, and significantly widened the intention-behavior gap (B = 0.045, p < 0.001). Class mobility expectations positively predicted both intentions (OR = 1.140) and behaviors (OR = 1.129, both p < 0.001), without increasing the gap. Mediation showed subjective class perception worked through traditional gender-role attitudes (indirect effect = 0.0045, 3.81%), while mobility expectations operated via happiness (0.0118, 8.83%) and health (0.0062, 5.14%). Results were robust to alternative models and PSM.

Static status evaluation shapes aspirations but fails to translate into actual fertility, whereas upward mobility beliefs facilitate intention realization by reducing uncertainty and psychological costs. Extending the Intergenerational Investment Utility Framework, our findings suggest that strengthening perceived mobility prospects may be a more effective policy lever than altering current class perceptions alone.