Path dependence in alchemical calculations of water chemical potential in aqueous electrolytes

Accurate calculation of free energies and their derivatives is central to assessing the thermodynamic stability of molecular and particulate systems across length scales. Yet, such quantities can be difficult to compute reliably in strongly interacting systems, such as solutions of ionic species in polar solvents. One important example is the chemical potential of water in aqueous electrolytes, which can be estimated through staged particle insertion by gradually coupling an inserted molecule to its environment. Although the resulting insertion free energy should be independent of the alchemical pathway, the order and manner in which van der Waals and electrostatic interactions are activated can strongly affect convergence and, in some cases, yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we examine this issue by calculating water's chemical potential in aqueous KCl solutions using eight alchemical insertion pathways that differ in the extent and order of van der Waals and Coulombic coupling. We find that concurrently activating these interactions, particularly in fully coupled and partially end-coupled protocols, can produce chemically implausible insertion free energies. These anomalies arise within the soft-core Hamiltonian from intermediate states in which the inserted water molecule develops strong electrostatic interactions with a chloride ion before sufficient short-range repulsion has been established. In contrast, pathways that activate short-range van der Waals interactions before electrostatics yield more consistent and chemically plausible estimates. These findings demonstrate that practical alchemical calculations in polar and ionic environments can be highly sensitive to pathway design, underscoring the importance of decoupling short-range and electrostatic interactions in staged insertion alchemical protocols.