An analytical framework for assessing wind farm siting suitability in China under future climate scenarios

Climate change may alter the magnitude and distribution of wind energy resources, with important implications for long-term wind farm siting. However, variations in siting suitability and development priorities under future climate scenarios remain insufficiently understood. Using daily projections of wind speed, air temperature and surface pressure for 2026-2100 from the East Asia domain of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-EA), this study applies a nonparametric copula model to estimate wind power density under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. A multi-criteria evaluation system based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and geographic information system (GIS) integrates climate resources, natural constraints, socio-economic factors and infrastructure to assess spatial patterns of siting suitability. The results reveal that mean wind power density decreases from 174.56 W/m² under RCP2.6 to 150.83 W/m² under RCP8.5, with declines across approximately 93% of the study area. The potentially developable area is 3.964 million km², concentrated in northern and central-western China. Wind farm siting suitability is higher in the north than in the south and more favourable in the west than in the east. Although the proportions of low-, medium- and high-suitability areas change little between scenarios, the maximum index declines from 0.93 under RCP2.6 to 0.74 under RCP8.5. Only 1.95% of the study area experiences class transitions, with downgraded areas 2.8 times as extensive as upgraded areas. Overlaying the two suitability results classifies the study area into four spatial planning zones according to development priority and scenario stability, supporting differentiated long-term wind power planning.