Academic burnout under geopolitical and economic uncertainty: longitudinal associations with future development...

Students may interpret geopolitical and economic change as a threat to future development, but its cross-wave associations with academic burnout remain unclear.

This study analyzed a two-wave convenience sample from four universities in Zhengzhou, China. The baseline sample comprised 1,823 students, of whom 1,215 completed matched follow-up after approximately 5 months. Wave-specific factor analyses, covariance-based confirmatory factor analysis, partial least squares structural equation modeling, and covariance-based sensitivity models were used.

After baseline adjustment, T1 perceived geopolitical and economic uncertainty was positively associated with T2 future development anxiety (beta = 0.175, P < 0.001) and T2 academic burnout (beta = 0.148, P < 0.001). T1 future development anxiety was positively associated with T2 academic burnout (beta = 0.176, P < 0.001), and the reverse cross-wave association was weaker (beta = 0.087, P < 0.001). The prospective-concurrent indirect association through T2 future development anxiety was significant (beta = 0.037, P < 0.001), but the mediator and outcome were measured concurrently. Employment competition pressure strengthened the focal association (beta = 0.105, P < 0.001), whereas perceived structural university support attenuated this moderation (three-way interaction beta = -0.114, P < 0.001).

The results indicate small to moderate cross-wave between-person associations. They do not establish within-person causation or temporal mediation. Universities may use these patterns to inform targeted support, but intervention effectiveness requires direct evaluation.