Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages

The energy transition and transportation electrification have increased the reliance of lithium ion battery supply chains on critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Here, we construct a multi-tier interfirm supply network of nine major battery manufacturers and develop a propagation recovery model to assess mineral shortage impacts and recovery pathways. Lithium shortages generate the largest cascading losses, followed by cobalt and nickel shortages. Recovery is primarily achieved through cross-tier resource reallocation, which contributes approximately 70% of total recovery, whereas newly established supply links provide a smaller contribution. Manufacturer resilience varies across minerals, reflecting heterogeneous supply chain exposure and recovery capacity. These findings identify mineral-specific risk pathways and recovery mechanisms, providing insights for resilient supply chain management and critical mineral governance during energy transitions.