Global modelling of atmospheric lead (Pb) concentrations and health risks during 2000-2019

Atmospheric lead (Pb) is a persistent toxic heavy metal that endangers global ecological and public health. Despite extensive regional Pb pollution investigations, the long-term global spatiotemporal evolution and health impacts of particle-bound Pb during 2000-2019 remain insufficiently clarified. Here, we constructed a refined global Pb emission inventory and adopted the GEOS-Chem model to comprehensively simulate global Pb spatiotemporal variations across eight typical regions for the first time, followed by a quantitative assessment of Pb-related carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks for adults and children. The correlation of simulations and observations reaches 0.82, indicating the robust modelling results. The results exhibited profoundly uneven global Pb distributions, with China dominating the highest pollution levels (15.3 ± 11.7 ng/m³), while developed and low-industrialized regions maintained relatively low concentrations. Distinct hemispheric seasonal discrepancies were identified: Northern Hemisphere regions peaked in boreal winter due to heating emissions and stable boundary layer trapping, whereas Southern Hemisphere Pb maxima occurred in austral autumn derived from biomass burning. A universal global Pb turning point emerged in 2013, with concentrations rising during 2000-2013 and declining afterward. Strict emission controls reversed China's growing Pb pollution, while continuous increases prevailed in India, Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) and South America (SA), revealing a clear pollution shift from developed to emerging industrial regions. Children and adults did not show significant non-carcinogenic risks though East and South Asia as primary health hotspots. This study clarifies the differentiated mechanisms and health implications of global Pb pollution, providing reliable support for targeted global heavy metal risk prevention and control.