Investigating outcome types and betting strategies in roulette: A simulation study

Roulette has not received as significant attention in research as other forms of gambling. Where roulette has, betting style is often constrained, reducing ecological validity. The present study sought to understand different betting strategies, potential outcome distributions, and implications for research. To build an understanding of the frequency of types of outcomes in roulette, the present research used a virtual roulette game to simulate 22,000 spins on a roulette wheel across 11 different betting strategies. There is the potential for 17 different outcome types for roulette: win, loss, loss disguised as win, and 14 different types of near miss. Across the 11 different strategies the rates of the different outcomes varied from being the minority to the majority outcomes. These data showed that roulette outcomes vary significantly as a function of betting strategy and that certain outcomes may not be encountered. However, the amount earned over the strategies did not differ from their starting value. Experimental research cannot allow participants to gamble organically and simultaneously retain experimental control over outcome distribution. Therefore, for roulette studies, researchers have three potential options: (1) To use pre-determined outcome sequences with restricted betting choices; (2) Use a pseudo-randomised sequence with programmed percentages of outcomes that allows ecologically valid betting but using a larger number of trials; (3) Use a random sequence and control for outcome variance using via statistical analysis. This study demonstrates factors researchers must consider when balancing experimental control and ecological validity in experimental roulette tasks.