Extreme-Climate-Driven Agricultural Trade Risk Sensing with Multimodal Consistency Learning and Edge Intelligence

Extreme climate events increasingly amplify agricultural trade security risks across interconnected stages: agricultural production, commodity conditions, cold-chain storage, logistics distribution, and trade fulfillment. However, existing approaches predominantly focus on isolated stages and fail to model cross-stage risk propagation, enable real-time edge inference, or provide well-calibrated risk warnings. To address these challenges, a multimodal edge-intelligence framework, termed AgriClimate-EdgeNet, is proposed to jointly model climatic conditions, agricultural production, commodity imagery, cold-chain states, logistics trajectories, and trade records. An extreme-climate-aware cross-modal consistency mechanism is developed to capture normal inter-stage correspondence and identify abnormal information conflicts. Depthwise separable temporal convolutions, gated temporal units, lightweight attention, and Teacher-Student distillation are incorporated for efficient edge inference. Furthermore, dynamic modality reliability estimation and dual predictive uncertainty modeling (decoupling epistemic and heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties) are integrated to ensure decision trustworthiness under severe sensory noise and missing observations. On a 38,400-window agricultural trade dataset, AgriClimate-EdgeNet achieves an Accuracy of 0.914, Recall of 0.896, Macro-F1 of 0.902, and AUC of 0.949, while reducing expected calibration error to 0.028 in routine single-pass Streaming Mode and 0.021 under multi-sample Deep Audit Mode. In operational edge deployment on NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin, the model requires 3.96 M on-device parameters and 1.21 G FLOPs, achieving an inference latency of 8.6 ms (116.3 samples/s) in Streaming Mode and 38.4 ms in Deep Audit Mode. These results demonstrate that AgriClimate-EdgeNet provides an accurate, robust, and low-latency solution for full-chain agricultural trade risk sensing under extreme climate shocks.