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The threat of climate change to anthocyanin content in black wolfberry fruit
Boya Yan1, Xu Wang2, Zenggen Liu1
1School of Pharmacy and Hubei Shizhen Laboratory, Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, Wuhan, 430065, China; Hubei Key Laboratory of Resources and Chemistry of Chinese Medicine, Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, Wuhan, 430065, China.
Abstract:
Climate associations with wild-fruit quality remain incompletely quantified. This study assessed climate-anthocyanin associations in black wolfberry (Lycium ruthenicum) and projected changes. Anthocyanins in 200 samples collected across seven regions in 2017 were quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography and modeled using random forest. Regional differences were significant (P < 0.001), with the highest petanin and total anthocyanin contents in the Qaidam Basin (25.52 ± 2.16 and 32.90 ± 2.50 mg/g dry weight, respectively). The model yielded R2 = 0.84; mean temperature of the warmest quarter had the highest predictive importance (percentage increase in mean squared error, 44%). This pattern, high contents in Qaidam and Hexi but low contents in Turpan, persisted during 2005-2020. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5, conditional projections indicated a 30% decline in the Qaidam Basin during 2081-2100. These findings suggest that warming may threaten black wolfberry quality and underscore the need for climate-adaptive cultivation strategies.
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