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P-WIN deployment: real-time personalized machine learning to predict critical deterioration in a pediatric intensive
Eamonn Tweedy1, Sanjiv Mehta2,3,4, Sachin Grover1
1Tsui Laboratory, Department of Biomedical and Health Informatics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19146, United States.
Objectives:
Early recognition of critical deterioration events (CDEs) in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) is crucial to improving outcomes, but the real-time performance of machine-learning (ML)-based alert systems is rarely assessed. We prospectively evaluated the performance, operational utility, and deployment feasibility of the PICU Warning Index (P-WIN), a personalized ML alert system predicting CDE in the PICU.
Materials And Methods:
In this prospective cohort study at a quaternary-care children's hospital, P-WIN estimated deterioration risk for PICU patients aged 0-24 years at 30-minute intervals between January 7 and April 7, 2026 using electronic health record data collected via Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources and proprietary EPIC API endpoints. CDEs included cardiopulmonary resuscitation, initiation of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, dilute (10 μg/mL) epinephrine bolus, or unplanned endotracheal intubation. P-WIN was compared to baseline workflows: an automated PICU Warning Tool and a clinician-huddle-based assessment. Primary measures were CDE-level sensitivity, admission-level positive predictive value (PPV), and alerts per patient-day.
Results:
Among 1005 PICU patients, 99 CDEs were experienced by 62 patients. P-WIN detected 73% of these CDE 1-24 hours in advance, outperforming the PICU Warning Tool (39%, P < .05) and huddle workflow (23%, P < .05). P-WIN generated 0.21 (95% CI, 0.18-0.23) alerts per patient-day. The PICU Warning Tool and huddle workflow had similar PPV to P-WIN.
Conclusion:
P-WIN detected significantly more CDEs than existing PICU Warning tool and huddle workflows while maintaining a similar PPV. Our findings underscore the feasibility of ML-based personalized warning systems to enhance shared situational awareness of PICU deterioration.