Pathway narratives towards a nature-positive European Union land system: operationalising the Nature Futures...

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) aims to open up space for plural perspectives on human-nature relationships and to identify visions for people to navigate towards desirable nature-positive futures. Operationalising the NFF offers a way to explore alternative pathways to reach these futures, but such applications are currently underdeveloped. Normative narratives can describe pathways towards nature-positive futures based on environmental policy objectives and the diverse values within and across societies. Here, we review the EU's policy objectives for land systems, biodiversity, climate, and the environment, including the European Green Deal, to identify actions and create pathway narratives at the EU scale that lead to a nature-positive future. Specifically, we developed three pathway narratives along the three NFF value perspectives that are distinct in how they implement actions to achieve EU policy objectives. In Nature for Nature, the restoration of natural processes is prioritised, in Nature as Culture/One with Nature the connection of people with nature is emphasised, and in Nature for Society development focuses on safeguarding ecosystem services. Whilst clear differences in the valuation of nature between the pathway narratives may lead to trade-offs, we also see several potential synergies for meeting policy objectives. These narratives can inform models to quantify NFF-based scenarios to understand the trade-offs and synergies of achieving the EU's policy objectives on land use, ecosystem provisioning, and quality of life. They can also serve as a basis for the creation of case study narratives within the EU through participatory processes.

The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-025-01737-0.