Balancing CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, health expenditure: implications for life expectancy in GCC countries

The complex interplay between environmental, economic, and health system factors shapes life expectancy in energy-intensive, resource-rich economies. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries provide a distinctive context characterised by rapid economic development, reliance on hydrocarbons, and significant investment in healthcare. However, the dynamic relationships between CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, healthcare expenditure, and population health outcomes remain insufficiently examined in the GCC context.

This study investigates the short- and long-run effects of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, and healthcare expenditure on life expectancy across the six GCC countries over 2000-2024. The Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) model is applied to account for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity. Robustness is confirmed via the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCE-MG) estimators. Causal directions are examined using the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test.

The findings indicate that CO₂ emissions are positively associated with life expectancy in both the short and long run, whereas energy consumption is negatively associated with life expectancy. In the long run, the estimated coefficients are 0.019 for CO₂ emissions, - 0.011 for energy consumption, and 0.010 for healthcare expenditure. Healthcare expenditure remains positively associated with life expectancy, highlighting the importance of sustained investment in health systems. The causality analysis reveals bidirectional Granger causality between CO₂ emissions and life expectancy and unidirectional Granger causality from healthcare expenditure to life expectancy.

The findings suggest that GCC countries should strengthen environmental-health governance, improve the efficiency of healthcare expenditure, and reduce the health costs associated with fossil fuel-intensive energy systems. Given the absence of panel cointegration evidence, the long-run findings should be interpreted cautiously as associations rather than a confirmed equilibrium relationship.