Confidence-based classification of clinically significant prostate cancer on biparametric MRI using Monte Carlo...

Accurate early diagnosis of Clinically Significant prostate cancer (csPCa) is crucial for improving patient survival rates. This study aimed to develop and validate an interpretable, confidence-based deep learning model for csPCa classification using biparametric MRI (bpMRI).

A retrospective analysis was conducted on bpMRI data from 410 patients. A classification model was constructed using the visual geometry group 16-layer (VGG-16) network, incorporating gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM) for visual interpretability, Monte Carlo Dropout (MC-Dropout) for uncertainty estimation, and a rejection mechanism. The model's performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUC).

Across all predictions, the confidence-based model achieved an overall accuracy of 79.3% before rejection. At a confidence threshold of 0.8, 80.8% of predictions were retained, among which the selective accuracy was 94.6%, with 99 false-positive and 2 false-negative predictions. Besides, the model's accuracy outperformed that of a senior radiologist (94.6% vs 90.8%). Qualitative Grad-CAM visualization demonstrated that the classifier frequently assigned high activation to MRI regions considered suspicious for csPCa; however, quantitative spatial agreement with lesion annotations was not assessed.

This confidence-based model identifies csPCa lesions and provides reliable confidence scores without pixel-level annotations. By rejecting uncertain predictions, it enhances the transparency and safety of clinical decision-making.