Plastic consumption and waste generation in China: Pathways toward full chain governance under policy interventions

Plastic pollution has emerged as a central challenge in global environmental governance, placing production limits and upstream mitigation at the heart of the negotiation under the ongoing UN global plastics treaty process. Effective governance requires robust, forward-looking assessments of plastic demand. This study develops an integrated forecasting framework that couples S-curve dynamics with multiple linear regression to capture both long-term economic convergence and short-term socioeconomic drivers. Using historical data from 1980 to 2020 across 68 countries and regions, the model projects China's plastic consumption and waste generation to 2040 and evaluates the outcomes of alternative policy pathways. Results identify three representative S-curve development trajectories. In the absence of further mitigation measures, extrapolation from comparable medium-to-high economies suggests that China's annual per capita plastic consumption could reach 132-182 kg by 2040, with annual plastic waste generation rising to approximately 208 Mt, largely driven by short-lived applications. However, scenario analysis demonstrates that an integrated circular economy strategy-combining source reduction, material substitution, and enhanced recycling-could curb total plastic demand by up to 24 % and reduce mismanaged waste by nearly 90 % compared to a business-as-usual baseline, with packaging and textiles presenting the highest mitigation potential. By linking demand-side drivers with sector-specific waste fate and policy levers, this analysis provides a quantitative, full-chain evidence base to support China's transition to a circular plastics economy and to inform ambitious national targets under a future global plastics agreement.