Lagging Restoration Exacerbates Vegetation Carbon Sink Deficits in China's Surface Coal Mining Areas

The global demand for coal is dramatically altering landscapes, yet the full impact on critical ecosystem functions like carbon sequestration and the efficacy of restoration efforts remains inadequately quantified. This is particularly critical for surface coal mining, where restoration lags can induce long-term carbon sink deficits. To overcome the limitations of current research in baseline setting and process analysis, we develop an accounting method that integrates multisource satellite data with dynamic baseline modeling to decouple mining and restoration impacts over 23 years in China's coal mining areas. Our results reveal a net loss of 21,757.91 Gg CO2 in vegetation carbon sequestration (VCS). Restoration has compensated for 5738.48 Gg CO2, but a pronounced recovery decoupling exists: carbon function recovery (20.87%) is less than half of vegetation area recovery (46.91%). Analysis using a novel "VCS loss pentagon" model shows that the year of start restoration (YSR) exhibited superior explanatory power for VCS losses compared to restoration level (RL), emphasizing the primacy of preventive ecological management over intensive postdestruction restoration. We find that early restoration outweighs intensive but delayed efforts in mitigating carbon loss. Model projections further indicate that achieving vegetation carbon balance by 2060 is feasible through a synergistic zonal strategy: "RL ≥ 100% (humid regions) + RL ≥ 130% (other regions) + YSR ≤ 2 years". This work provides a scalable framework for precise carbon accounting and targeted restoration, guiding sustainable mining transitions aligned with global climate goals.