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Significant Near-Term Inequity under China's 2035 NDC due to a Time Lag in Mitigation Effects across Regions
Zeyuan Liu1, Yihao Wang2, Jinchi Dong3
1School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou310058, China.
Abstract:
China has submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) toward 2035, potentially promoting its simultaneous goals of mitigating climate change and improving air quality. Yet, the effects of this NDC remain unclear across regions and over time. By using an integrated modeling framework, we show that the NDC increases the net benefits of these simultaneous goals by 1500.5 billion USD over 2025-2060, with significant heterogeneity across space and time. In the near term, the NDC reduces climate benefits, particularly in underdeveloped regions, primarily due to increased coal-based power generation needed to balance renewable intermittency and soil organic carbon release by rapid afforestation. In the long term, the NDC generates 3924.3 billion USD in climate benefits and 1659.5 billion USD in health cobenefits, benefiting all regions, although remaining concentrated in high-income regions. Extra measures are needed to enhance policy coherence under the NDC target, with earlier afforestation, non-CO2 abatement, and compensation mechanisms being central.