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Published on: October 28, 2022
Operational margin of high-school tennis tournaments under heat constraints: a wet-bulb globe temperature-based
Hiroki Yamaguchi1, Takaaki Mori2,3, Hiromi Hanano3
1Graduate School of Health and Sports Science, Doshisha University, Kyotanabe, Kyoto, Japan.
Introduction:
Environmental heat indices such as wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) does not directly indicate whether a tournament schedule can be completed. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to translate WBGT-based environmental conditions into operational indicators relevant to tournament management and evaluate the effects of tournament scheduling and timing on tennis tournament feasibility.
Methods:
In this observational study, WBGT data (April-October 2018-2022; n = 119,048) from 11 Japan Meteorological Agency stations were analyzed. Hours with WBGT <28 were defined as low-risk operational time and converted into tournament indicators, including feasible tournament days and match capacity. For July-September, the effects of dates (1-10, 11-20, 21-end) and timing (standard, nighttime, and early morning models) were assessed using logistic regression. Scenario analyses combining these conditions were conducted, and the feasibility of the school tennis tournament was evaluated based on low-risk operational time and match capacity.
Results:
Adjusting timing significantly increased low-risk operational time (nighttime model: odds ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval: 1.42-1.50; early morning model: odds ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval: 1.33-1.40). By contrast, shifting the tournament dates alone showed smaller effects. The combined adjustments increased the number of feasible days by up to 0.8 d. Although the predefined operational feasibility threshold was met on average in most scenarios, the magnitude of the operational margin varied among scenarios.
Conclusion:
Tournament feasibility should be evaluated based on operational margins as well as the predefined operational feasibility threshold. Although the threshold was met on average in most scenarios, the magnitude of the operational margin varied among tournament conditions. Combining changes in tournament dates with timing adjustments resulted in the greatest increase in low-risk operational time and tournament feasibility among the scenarios examined.
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