Armed conflict exposure and violent discipline of children at home: Panel evidence from Ethiopia

Armed conflict has far-reaching effects on household well-being, including increased risk of violence. We examine whether changes in local armed conflict exposure are associated with changes in caregiver-perpetrated physical punishment of children, as reported by mothers. We link six waves (2016-2021) of panel survey data from employed women in Ethiopia (1065 respondents; just over 5000 respondent-wave observations) to geo-referenced conflict events from ACLED. Using respondent and wave fixed-effects linear probability models, we find that a one-standard-deviation increase in conflict exposure (19.4 events) increases the probability of physical punishment by any caregiver by 3.4 percentage points (pp) (≈5.2% relative to the mean), father punishment by 2.7 pp (≈6.4%), mother punishment by 3.6 pp (≈5.6%), and punishment by both caregivers by 2.9 pp (≈7.3%). A decomposition into presence versus intensity indicates a sizeable increase at conflict onset, with smaller incremental increases as events accumulate. Conflict exposure also coincides with higher caregiver distress and indicators of economic strain, including reduced labor supply and lower reported income among fathers. These findings suggest that conflict can spill over into harsher parenting, highlighting the importance of integrating child protection, caregiver mental health support, and livelihood assistance into conflict-response programming.