A Conservation Roadmap for the Anticipated Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) Metapopulation in Central Europe-Modelling...

Reintroducing wildlife into anthropogenic landscapes is challenging, particularly for wide-ranging species. Extensive habitat fragmentation and limited carrying capacities pose genuine risks of population isolation and subsequent genetic erosion. A current example includes the fragmented populations of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx carpathicus) in Central Europe, where isolated demes currently rely on ex situ sourced or wild-caught releases to buffer inbreeding accumulation over short timescales. Due to management trade-offs, however, such assisted migration can only function as a transitional remedy, whereas long-term stability hinges on inherent growth rates and vital genetic exchange in a metapopulation framework. We here use analytic modelling to examine potential scenarios and requirements for a vital metapopulation of the Eurasian lynx in Central Europe. To inform conservation management in the early stages of formation, we considered scenarios that describe the current and near-future status of the metapopulation, as well as anticipated-but not yet established-scenarios that would ensure long-term genetic stability. We find that current and near-future effective sizes and migration rates among demes are far from sufficient to reach long-term stability (Ne_meta > 500), even given hundreds of generations. Model-derived management targets suggest that robust configurations require significant increases in deme sizes (> 150%), diversity (Ne/Nc > 0.4), and average pairwise migration rates (> 10%), in order to advance towards stable metapopulation dynamics. This, however, entails potential distribution trade-offs from limited capacities in ex situ and/or wild population sourcing. Here, our model outcomes caution against diverting resources towards new introductions, and highlight the need for ongoing reinforcement of existing demes on the one hand, and the mitigation of dispersal barriers and threats on the other hand.