Childhood at Risk: Quantile Insights Into Abuse Rates Amid Pandemic Uncertainty

Uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic has amplified psychological strain and financial hardship, driving a troubling rise in child abuse across the world. As families grapple with instability, children become the silent victims, suffering from increased neglect and violence in environments meant to protect them.

This study investigates how pandemic-induced uncertainty asymmetrically influences child abuse in 10 heterogeneous nations: the USA, Brazil, India, Germany, Japan, South Africa, Mexico, Nigeria, Australia, and the Philippines.

Using the World Pandemic Uncertainty Index, which captures uncertainty arising from several disease outbreaks, including SARS, avian flu, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19, the analysis applies the Quantile-on-Quantile methodology to trace fluctuations in the variables across quantiles within each country. Unlike traditional panel-based models, this method allows for a nuanced, country-specific analysis that reveals significant nonlinearities.ResultsThe findings show that pandemic uncertainty significantly increases child abuse rates in most of the selected nations.

The findings reveal substantial asymmetries in the pandemic uncertainty-child abuse relationship across countries and quantiles, indicating that the effects of uncertainty are neither uniform nor linear. The results underscore the need for policymakers to undertake comprehensive monitoring and design resilient strategies that respond to shifts in pandemic uncertainty and child abuse.