Empirical Estimation of the Discount Rate for Pharmacoeconomic Evaluation in China

The discount rate is a key parameter in pharmacoeconomic evaluation. This study aims to empirically estimate a discount rate for pharmacoeconomic evaluations in China.

The discount rate was calculated using both the social opportunity cost (SOC) method and the social rate of time preference (SRTP) method, and then a final rate was derived by weighting them. Annual national time-series data from 2001 to 2024 were used for the empirical analysis. Data were mainly obtained from the China Statistical Yearbook, the China Household Survey Yearbook, and the official websites of the People's Bank of China and the National Bureau of Statistics.

Empirical results showed that the discount rates derived from the SOC and SRTP methods are 1.24% and 9.00%, respectively. The discount rate derived from the consumption-based SRTP method was higher than that obtained from the investment-based SOC method. Using a weighted average approach with weights of 0.59 (SOC) and 0.41 (SRTP), we obtain an overall discount rate of 4.43%. Sensitivity analyses indicate that the final estimate is moderately sensitive to the choice of consumption growth proxies and time windows. The weighted average rate spans 2.94% to 6.62% across parameter scenarios and 3.52% to 9.66% across sub-period windows; the latter is widened by earlier high-growth periods, with recent windows close to the 4.43% central value.

This study provides updated empirical evidence on the discount rate for costs in pharmacoeconomic evaluations in China. The central estimate of 4.43%, with a sensitivity range of 2.94% to 9.66%, serves as an empirical reference for future reassessment of the discount rate.