Stronger mnemonic prediction errors can disproportionately impair memory updating in older adults

Mnemonic prediction errors are discrepancies between memory-based expectations and actual events that can trigger memory updating. However, the conditions under which these prediction errors result in successful memory updating, and whether these effects vary between younger and older adults, remain less understood. In two experiments, the present study investigated how prediction strength affects memory for events that violated memory-based expectations in younger and older adults. Prediction strength was manipulated by first presenting three-word sequences (i.e., trains), each with exemplars from the same category (Bluejay-Hawk-Eagle), either once or four times. Predictions based on memory for trains were then confirmed by repeating sequences entirely (Bluejay-Hawk-Eagle) or violated by repeating the first two words and changing the ending word (Bluejay-Hawk-Robin). Differences in prediction strength, created by varying repetitions, were validated using retrospective judgments (Experiment 1) and prospective predictions of original train endings along with confidence ratings (Experiment 2). Prediction error effects on memory updating were assessed by presenting the first two words of trains as cues for recalling changed ending words. Stronger predictions impaired memory for changed endings disproportionately for older adults, and older adults were less able to recollect that endings had changed when asked directly. Regardless of prediction strength and age, change recollection was consistently associated with better memory for changed ending words. Collectively, these findings suggest that stronger mnemonic predictions exacerbate the negative impact of prediction errors on the resolution of proactive interference, an ability that is often impaired in healthy aging. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2026 APA, all rights reserved).