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Beyond Accumulation: The Intuitive Jump Model of Expert Decision Making in Sports
Xiuying Miao1,2, Congcong Zhang2, Na Xu3
1School of Physical Education, Hanshan Normal University, Chaozhou, GD, China.
Abstract:
We propose the intuitive jump model of expert sport decisions, a dual-pathway conceptual framework in which an evidence accumulation route operates alongside a rapid, threshold-based intuitive route. Two studies with elite basketball athletes tested the hypothesis that time pressure induces a qualitative pathway shift rather than merely a boundary collapse. Study 1 (N = 34) examined the model inputs, showing that trial-level cue informativeness (Csensory) from naturalistic videos reliably predicted faster correct responses, providing a behavioral proxy for accumulation efficiency. Using mid-range Csensory stimuli and a heuristic cue validity paradigm, Study 2 (N = 30) contrasted no time pressure versus time pressure conditions. Analyses using an adapted process dissociation procedure revealed a selective dissociation: Time pressure selectively reduced the evidence accumulation contribution (C), whereas the intuitive jump contribution (H) remained statistically invariant. This dissociation provides behavioral evidence for the intuitive jump model's jump mechanism and lays the behavioral groundwork for future mathematical formalizations.
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