Decredentialed jobs and upward mobility among non-college workers in the USA

Prominent employers are increasingly dropping college degree requirements when hiring. Does this provide upward mobility for non-college workers? Matching job postings to 446,500 job starts in US administrative data from 2011 to 2021, we show that employers reduced the share of postings requiring a degree by more than 10%. Non-college workers who move to decredentialed jobs earn 12 log points more than matched workers moving to never-credentialed jobs (β = 0.124; 95% confidence interval, (0.042, 0.206)), around US$4,600 per year-a premium that endures for at least five years. These hires are more likely to be Black, Hispanic and female than the workers they replace. Employers also benefit, as removing degree requirements reduces labour costs. Yet most employers that drop requirements do not hire non-college workers (non-college hiring rises 1.2 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, (0.5, 2.0)). Decredentialing is a promising tool for social mobility, but only when employers follow through.