[Driving Factors and Technical Effects of Emission Reduction in China's Steel Industry Based on Long-term Goals]

As one of the most carbon-intensive sectors in China， the iron and steel industry plays a pivotal role in achieving the national goals of carbon peaking and neutrality， while also driving the country's rapid economic development. This study first constructs an LMDI model based on historical data from China's steel industry spanning 2000 to 2022， aiming to identify the key factors influencing carbon emissions in the sector. Using 2020 as the base year and 2035 as the target year， a LEAP model is then developed to analyze the full-process CO₂ emission characteristics of China's steel industry under different scenarios between 2020 and 2035. This study provides key insights into the pathways for decarbonizing China's iron and steel industry： ① Energy structure and production scale were identified as the main drivers of the continued increase in CO₂ emissions， while improvements in energy intensity and reductions in the carbon emission coefficient played a counterbalancing role by partially mitigating the overall emission growth. ② Scenario analysis showed that under the baseline scenario， CO₂ emissions were expected to peak at 2 010 Mt in 2025. However， under the technological mitigation scenario， the peak was reduced to 1 814 Mt in the same year. In contrast， under both the structural mitigation and integrated mitigation scenarios， emissions were projected to decline steadily from 2020 through 2035. ③ In terms of energy type， blast furnace gas， converter gas， coke oven gas， tar， crude benzene， and steam demonstrated net negative emissions， acting as offsetting energy sources. Meanwhile， pulverized coal， coke， washed coal， and electricity accounted for the largest share of carbon emissions， highlighting their central role in total emission levels. ④ In terms of production processes， ironmaking， rolling， and sintering were found to be the primary sources of CO₂ emissions across all scenarios. Among the various energy-efficiency technologies， the "full combustion of blast furnace gas in boilers" delivered the largest emission reduction， reaching 296 kg of CO₂ per ton of steel. In contrast， the "electric furnace flue gas waste heat recovery" technology contributed the least to emission reductions， with a reduction of only 0.77 kg of CO₂ per ton of steel.