[Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Landscape Ecological Risk in Guyuan City， Ningxia]

Scientific assessment of landscape ecological risk （LER） plays a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem health and promoting regional coordinated development. Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution trends and driving factors of LER is of great significance for regional sustainable development. This study takes Guyuan City， Ningxia Province as the research area. Based on landscape type data from 2000 to 2020， we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of LER， applied Moran's I index to examine its spatial aggregation， and utilized the Geodetector technique and geographically weighted regression （GWR） model to identify the driving factors. The results indicate that： ① From 2000 to 2020， cropland was the dominant landscape type， with the most significant land transfer being the conversion of cropland to grassland. Forest land showed a general increasing trend， while water bodies， construction land， and unused land accounted for relatively small proportions but changed more rapidly. ② During the study period， the overall LER value exhibited a decreasing trend. The areas of high-risk and relatively high-risk categories decreased annually， whereas the areas of medium-risk， relatively low-risk， and low-risk categories increased significantly. High-risk and relatively high-risk areas were primarily transformed into medium-risk areas. Spatially， LER showed significant aggregation， mainly characterized by "high-high" and "low-low" clustering patterns. ③ LER in Guyuan City was co-influenced by natural and socioeconomic factors. Among single factors， NDVI had the greatest explanatory power （q-value reached 0.589 in 2020）. Regarding interaction effects， the interaction between NDVI and population density was the strongest （q = 0.728）. Among two-factor interactions， the interaction between rainfall and population density changed most noticeably， with the highest q-value in 2015 （0.497） and the lowest in 2020 （0.385）. NDVI primarily exerted an inhibitory effect on LER， while extreme climate and unfavorable topography contributed to increased LER. Socioeconomic factors mainly acted as positive drivers of LER in Yuanzhou District and Xiji County. The findings provide theoretical guidance for regional ecological conservation and urban construction， facilitating the synergistic development of landscape ecological risk patterns and promoting the improvement of ecological environment quality and sustainable regional economic development in Guyuan City.